Securing the Global Supply Chain: Governments and Logistics Firms Prep for the Post-Quantum Threat

Quantum Computing’s Threat to Supply Chain Security

While much of the conversation around quantum computing centers on its promise — optimization, simulation, machine learning — one of its most pressing implications is destructive: the threat to current cryptographic standards.

In November 2019, this issue reached a critical inflection point in the logistics and supply chain sectors. As quantum machines grew more capable, the fear intensified that RSA, ECC, and other public-key encryption methods — widely used to secure data across global freight and logistics systems — would become obsolete.

For companies that depend on real-time, secure communications across borders — shipping manifests, customs documents, port access credentials — quantum decryption could spell disaster. Entire global trade networks are built on trust that digital transactions remain secure. Quantum computing could upend that trust.

The NIST PQC Standardization Push

A key development this month came from the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which had launched its Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization project back in 2016 but reached a decisive phase in 2019. By November, NIST had narrowed the list of potential quantum-resistant algorithms and invited industry feedback.

Notably, large logistics players including FedEx, DHL, and customs technology integrators such as Descartes Systems Group began participating in preliminary roundtable discussions and working groups to better understand which encryption models might best suit logistics environments.

In interviews, cybersecurity leads at shipping companies expressed concern that they lacked adequate transition roadmaps. "We’re running 1990s-era encryption over systems that were modernized just five years ago," said one European freight CIO anonymously. "Quantum means we have to rethink the whole stack — from smart locks on containers to cross-border tracking APIs."

NATO and Supply Chain Resilience

Simultaneously, NATO’s Science & Technology Organization hosted a November workshop on "Quantum Computing and Its Implications for Defense Logistics", held in Brussels. The session focused on both quantum threats and potential advantages, but a central theme was supply chain integrity in the face of post-quantum cyberattacks.

Defense logistics — including weapons supply, humanitarian mission coordination, and fuel distribution — often rely on logistics protocols secured by outdated encryption methods. According to NATO’s quantum working group, a well-funded adversary with access to near-term quantum computing could "surgically disrupt fleet coordination or tamper with authentication systems in smart ports.”

The response? NATO began internal modeling of logistics cryptography migration scenarios, with pilot partnerships involving defense logistics companies like Kuehne+Nagel Defense Logistics and BAE Systems.

DHL and PQC Experimentation

On the commercial side, DHL Supply Chain, a division of Deutsche Post DHL, began internal testing of post-quantum secure APIs for warehouse management and customs data exchange in November 2019.

In partnership with BT Security and Cambridge Quantum Computing, DHL tested quantum-resistant encryption (notably based on lattice cryptography) within its European smart hub facilities, including the Leipzig Megahub in Germany.

The experiment involved encrypting time-sensitive customs documents sent between DHL facilities and border control agencies using Falcon and CRYSTALS-Kyber, two of the NIST-recognized PQC candidates.

Although these systems were still in alpha-stage integration, DHL confirmed that latency increases were within acceptable bounds for B2B applications — a promising sign for the viability of PQC in logistics workflows.

Blockchain and Quantum Intersections

Another hot topic in November 2019 was the intersection of quantum computing and blockchain, especially given that many modern logistics tracking systems — such as TradeLens (developed by Maersk and IBM) — rely on distributed ledger technology (DLT) to ensure cargo visibility and data immutability.

Quantum computers pose a dual threat to blockchain:

1. Signature Forgery: Quantum systems could fake digital signatures of authorized cargo handlers.

2. Ledger Tampering: Advanced quantum attacks might manipulate blockchain consensus mechanisms, particularly in smaller private chains.

Recognizing this, IBM Research Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) launched joint research into quantum-safe blockchain models, with applications explicitly targeted at port authorities and freight auditing networks.

Asia’s Response: Japan and Singapore Lead

In Asia, Japan’s National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) issued an alert to logistics tech firms, warning that by the mid-2020s, “nation-state actors could have access to quantum machines capable of extracting private keys.”

In response, Tokyo-based shipping tech integrator Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) began working with local telecom NTT on upgrading encryption layers of its marine tracking and fleet routing systems.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) hosted a closed-door roundtable with APAC shipping stakeholders and cryptography researchers at Nanyang Technological University, focused on preparing smart port infrastructures for a post-quantum environment.

Looking Ahead: The Urgency of Migration

Experts agree that even though large-scale quantum computers won’t arrive for 5–10 years, the "harvest now, decrypt later" threat makes immediate action necessary. Cybercriminals and hostile actors can intercept encrypted logistics data today and store it for future decryption using quantum systems.

This is particularly dangerous for customs data, supply contracts, and route optimization intelligence, which may have long-term competitive or security value.

In its November 2019 position paper, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) recommended that all organizations dealing with critical transport infrastructure:

• Begin audits of cryptographic systems used in logistics.

• Test integration of at least one NIST PQC finalist in production environments.

• Build redundancy systems in case of algorithm breakage.

Conclusion

The developments of November 2019 revealed that quantum computing’s first real impact on logistics may be defensive, not disruptive. As the global supply chain digitalizes and interconnects, the security assumptions of yesterday are no longer sufficient.

From DHL’s quantum-secure pilot APIs to NATO’s strategic planning, it’s clear the logistics sector is beginning to treat post-quantum cryptography as a now-problem — not a future one. For the sprawling, high-value web that is global trade, upgrading encryption could mean the difference between secure commerce and quantum-fueled chaos.

Quantum may one day optimize routes and reduce emissions — but first, it must secure the highways of global trade.