How Quantum Digital Twins Are Shaping the Future of Supply Chain Simulations

Digital Twins Meet Quantum Potential

In September 2019, a growing number of industrial research labs and logistics firms around the world began to seriously investigate the potential of quantum computing to elevate digital twin technology—a sector already transforming supply chains through real-time simulation and predictive modeling. Digital twins—virtual representations of physical assets or systems—are becoming integral to managing dynamic environments like warehouses, transportation networks, and entire supply chains. But as their complexity grows, so does the computational load.

Enter quantum computing. While still early-stage, its potential to handle multidimensional data and optimize scenarios across vast combinatorial spaces has started catching the attention of logistics leaders. In this month, the convergence of these two technologies saw several notable research initiatives and industry partnerships aimed at rethinking supply chain management through quantum-enhanced digital twins.

Fraunhofer and IBM Germany: A Milestone in Logistics Simulation

On September 10, 2019, Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Europe's largest application-oriented research organization, announced a formal partnership with IBM to develop quantum-enhanced digital twins for logistics. The initiative is headquartered at the newly opened Fraunhofer Quantum Computing Competence Center in Ehningen, Germany. The center is among the first in Europe to secure access to IBM’s Q System One, a commercial quantum computer.

The collaboration focuses on applying quantum algorithms to the simulation models used in predictive maintenance, inventory optimization, and intermodal transport routing. Specifically, the digital twins used in rail freight and automated port operations are being refactored using hybrid quantum-classical models to boost simulation fidelity and reduce decision-making latency.

“Digital twins are only as useful as their predictive power,” said Dr. Martin Welsch, project lead at Fraunhofer. “Quantum computing helps unlock more complex behavioral models by allowing us to simulate multiple future states concurrently.”

Toshiba and Mitsubishi Explore Quantum Digital Twins in Japan

Meanwhile, in Japan, Toshiba Digital Solutions and Mitsubishi Logistics jointly announced a feasibility study on quantum-enhanced twins for warehouse automation. Their initial tests focus on robotics coordination and real-time demand planning in multi-tier warehouses. Using Toshiba’s Quantum Inspired Optimization (QIO) engine—a classical system mimicking quantum annealing principles—the simulations run significantly faster compared to traditional heuristics.

Though QIO is not quantum computing per se, its architecture demonstrates quantum-like behavior in discrete optimization problems. The partners believe that transitioning to true quantum systems as hardware matures will enable more granular and flexible real-time forecasting.

This approach allows them to simulate thousands of “what-if” supply scenarios in parallel: including delayed supplier inputs, machinery failure, and labor force fluctuations—all in near real time.

Logistics Use Case: Port of Rotterdam’s Quantum Blueprint

In the Netherlands, the Port of Rotterdam Authority began working on a quantum blueprint for its digital twin program. While the port had already deployed advanced AI and IoT systems for vessel scheduling and terminal logistics, officials revealed plans in late September 2019 to begin collaborating with Dutch quantum ecosystem partners like QuTech and TNO.

The goal is to assess how quantum computing can expand the decision horizon of the port’s digital twin, particularly for container slot allocation, real-time emission tracking, and multimodal rail-ship-truck coordination. Their roadmap anticipates a hybrid quantum simulation system by 2023, assuming advancements in error correction and circuit depth management.

“Ports are nonlinear systems with chaotic input flows. Quantum computing offers us the chance to model disruptions before they cascade,” said Erwin Rademaker, head of innovation at the Port of Rotterdam.

Quantum Digital Twins for Supply Chain Resilience

The appeal of quantum-enhanced digital twins lies in their potential to improve supply chain resilience. Traditional digital twin models depend heavily on data quality and the scope of simulation. But quantum-based models can explore exponentially more combinations of failure points, supply disruptions, or demand spikes—making them ideal for stress testing.

In September 2019, the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) partnered with Alibaba Cloud to co-host a symposium on resilient supply chains, where one keynote discussed the quantum twin concept. The presentation detailed early experiments simulating pharmaceutical distribution networks, comparing classical and quantum-inspired models under pandemic-like stressors—a prescient move given the coming COVID-19 crisis.

Challenges: Hardware and Integration

Despite the promising progress, there remain significant hurdles. Quantum hardware is still in its NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) phase, meaning error correction and circuit stability are limiting factors. Moreover, most logistics firms lack quantum-literate personnel, and integration with existing ERP or WMS systems is non-trivial.

Additionally, digital twins rely on continuous real-time data feeds, and many current quantum systems are still batch-process oriented. Bridging this architectural gap will require the development of quantum-classical hybrid computing platforms with real-time APIs and machine learning layers capable of interpreting quantum outputs.

Global Outlook: Government Investment Picks Up

Governments are beginning to see quantum digital twins as a strategic capability. In September 2019, the European Union expanded its Quantum Flagship program to include logistics and transport modeling as key application areas. Similarly, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced a new grant framework for industrial quantum research, encouraging logistics-tech firms to apply.

While the U.S. focus during this period remained largely on defense and post-quantum cryptography, agencies like DARPA have expressed interest in the simulation capabilities of quantum systems—especially for mission-critical logistics.

Conclusion: Simulating the Future

September 2019 marked a quiet but meaningful shift in how digital twin strategies are evolving in logistics. With real-world pilots in Japan, Germany, and the Netherlands, and growing interest from academia and government, quantum-enhanced simulations are beginning to gain credibility.

Though it may take several more years for full-scale commercial deployment, early successes suggest that quantum-powered digital twins could one day become the bedrock of dynamic, resilient, and efficient global supply chains. For logistics professionals, now is the time to start paying close attention to this convergence—because the future may be simulated before it arrives.